Tuesday, June 17, 2008


The magic number is no longer 2025 (or 2118). It's 270.

And the Obama campaign was quick to suggest different ways to get there, crucially, sans Florida and/or Ohio. That's a big concession, but a realistic one. It should also be said that David Plouffe's statements were probably also calculated to say, tentatively and experimentally (together with the campaign's hiring of Patti Solis Doyle for Chief of Staff for the VP), "we don't really need Hillary Clinton."

So when the Obama campaign (and the DNC) promises a 50 state strategy, they are really promising an unconventional campaign into the White House: one that will not obsess over FL and OH (as the last two elections have) and their demographics, but one that will look to opportunities in particular in GA and VA (with big African-American populations) and also in once Republican-leaning states such as ND, NM, NV, and MT. They will have the money to do it. So if the campaign gets it right, there is a distinct potential for a landslide here, one that the Democrats have not had since 1964. In 2008, the Democrats will not be waiting on either Florida (as in 2000) or Ohio (as in 2004) - that's unconventional, but not necessarily risky.

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