Election
Day in the US is a bewildering spectacle. From the upward climb of the cost of
elections (NC just saw the most expensive senatorial campaign ever in
history), the switch of majority in the Senate, to the legalization of marijuana
in Oregon and DC, it is difficult to say exactly what voters meant to say.
What
is clear is that Democrats had a bad night. Of the four senate races in the purple
states that went for Obama in 2012 (VA, CO, IA, NC) Republicans won in all but
VA. We now have, unequivocally, a Republican Congress. There will now be at least 52
Republican senators and 242 Republican Congressmen. Democrats failed to take
down Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin. He has attacked labor, rolled back
healthcare reform, and yet has been elected three times (including a recall
election) in four years. Walker is now a person to watch. Just about the only
silver lining for the Democrats is that Jeanne Shaheen of NH held on to her
seat.
To
some extent, this election was a referendum on Barack Obama. Democratic candidates
were undeniably running away from the president, whose approval rating stood
at 41 percent on the eve of the election. (Maybe some of them should have
stood with him, because the perception of political malaise, endorsed even by
those trying to shy away from it, can have an infectious effect on voters.) Some
time tomorrow, Barack Obama will have to come into the East Room, congratulate
the Republicans and hold an olive branch. He will set up a meeting with Mitch
McConnell and try to learn, for the first time, how to work with a
Republican-led Senate.
But
this is not to say that Republicans have an easy time ahead. Republican
operatives are already claiming a mandate, and warning Obama that he should not
use his unilateral powers to push through immigration reform or veto a bill on
the Keystone pipeline. There’s nothing stopping Obama, though. And soon-to-be
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will have at least three Senators
setting themselves up to run in 2016: Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio.
This is not a merry band of collaborators. (Rand Paul, for instance, is for
immigration reform.)
Only
46 percent of voters polled before the elections wanted a GOP Congress. But in
exit polls of actual voters, 54 percent of Americans thought that government is
doing too much. What this tells us is that there wasn’t a Republican swing
nationwide, but there was a 6-year itch felt among some. These voters had
gotten tired of incumbent Democrats and Obama, and they were the ones who
turned out to make the elections a referendum on the president.
Democrats look exhausted; many have been defeated. But that also means that they are ready for a new standard bearer. The big night for Republicans may well chart an easier path for Hillary Clinton to the White House. Even amidst change, some things don’t change. American voters don’t like incumbents.